Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s political fortunes are waning after years of civil war, regional destabilization, and controversial alliances most notably with Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki. His exit would reverberate across the Horn of Africa, reshaping the balance of power from Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State to Somaliland’s trade ambitions. In Ethiopia, nine opposition parties, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), have united to remove Abiy. This shift could empower pro-federalist forces, benefiting Somalia’s Jubaland and Puntland, which have resisted Mogadishu’s centralization efforts. Conversely, Villa Somalia, led by Farmaajo and Fahad Yasin, views TPLF’s resurgence as a political threat, given their past alignment with Abiy’s centralist agenda. Somaliland could also see gains. Abiy’s lukewarm stance on the Berbera Trade Corridor and frosty relations with Hargeisa may give way to renewed Ethiopian interest, especially as the TPLF seeks alternatives to Djibouti, whose leadership backed the Tigray war.