Somalia is at a critical crossroads as two years of electoral manipulation, bribery, coercion, and political co-optation by Villa Somalia have eroded the integrity of the country’s democratic process. The manipulated elections lack popular support, resulting in widespread disillusionment and deepening mistrust in governance. The country faces a growing risk of political fragmentation, with Villa Somalia potentially pursuing a parallel, illegitimate process while the opposition prepares counter-strategies. This instability is compounded by external pressures, such as Ethiopia’s decision to redeploy its forces from parts of southern Somalia, leaving security vacuums in strategic areas. The withdrawal raises concerns about increased militant activity in the tri-border region between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. With national cohesion weakening, political tensions escalating, and security deteriorating, Somalia risks sliding back into deeper conflict. The situation demands urgent political compromise, credible electoral reforms, and inclusive dialogue among stakeholders to prevent further destabilization. Without decisive action, Somalia’s fragile state could face another protracted crisis with dire consequences for its people and the broader Horn of Africa.
The Somali electoral process continues to face severe challenges due to Villa Somalia’s interference and inability to ensure a fair process. This week, tensions resurfaced over the selection of Somaliland delegates after Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Guled submitted his own list, bypassing proper supervision. Speaker Abdi Hashi, constitutionally responsible for overseeing the selection, formally complained that Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble failed to uphold the 27 May agreement, instead delegating the task to Guled. Hashi’s letter prompted Roble to convene a meeting, with the opposition Council of Presidential Candidates reinforcing concerns about Villa Somalia’s divisive tactics. The Prime Minister’s perceived allegiance to Farmaajo’s interests has frustrated opposition leaders and undermined trust in the process. While elections are still possible in October 2021, unresolved disputes and continued manipulation by Villa Somalia threaten a protracted political crisis. The opposition is reportedly considering a boycott ahead of August, highlighting the deepening political instability. Somalia risks repeating patterns of electoral mismanagement, with democratic principles sidelined by power struggles and favoritism.
Somalia’s political crisis deepened when outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo employed old-school political tactics to undermine Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble’s leadership. Following the April 25 security breakdown in Mogadishu where the military splintered along political lines PM Roble took bold steps to restore order, including backing the 17 September 2020 electoral agreement, initiating security demobilization, and calling for inclusive consultations with Federal Member States. Despite Farmaajo’s public concession to hand over security and election oversight, his allies continued to sabotage the process. From rejecting the African Union envoy’s involvement to orchestrating targeted dismissals of military officers and ministry officials, Farmaajo’s camp sought to distract, divide, and derail Roble’s political dialogue.
Somalia is at a critical crossroads, facing escalating political and security tensions that threaten national stability. Two years of alleged electoral manipulation, bribery, and coercion by Villa Somalia have led to a contested and widely criticized process, eroding public trust and legitimacy. As the opposition challenges the government’s actions, the risk of fragmentation and parallel political processes grows, increasing the likelihood of violent confrontation. At the same time, shifting regional dynamics including Ethiopia’s redeployment of troops from southern Somalia are reshaping the security landscape, leaving key border areas vulnerable to insurgent activity. The ‘tri-border’ region between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia is now a flashpoint for instability, with reduced Ethiopian presence potentially emboldening militant groups. This analysis examines the interplay between internal political disputes, foreign troop movements, and the fragile security environment, offering insights into what the next phase of Somalia’s crisis may hold. Understanding these developments is crucial for policymakers, analysts, and observers who seek to anticipate emerging threats and opportunities for stability in the Horn of Africa.
Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, is once again engulfed in violence, with opposition forces seizing control of large parts of the city. While political attention focuses on President Farmaajo, Prime Minister Roble, and opposition leaders, the man with the most influence over the armed landscape may be NISA Director General Fahad Yasin. Under his leadership, NISA has evolved from an intelligence agency into a militarized force, commanding elite units such as the US-trained Gaashan and Waran, the Eritrean-trained Duufaan, Turkish-trained Gorgor, and Qatari-backed Haram’ad. Fahad’s forces have played a central role in both regional conflicts and recent Mogadishu clashes, including alleged assassination attempts on opposition figures. Despite their specialized training, some units have suffered costly battlefield failures. As other military and police commanders defect, NISA, Gorgor, and Haram’ad remain the core of Farmaajo’s protection though even these could fragment along clan lines.
On Sunday evening, Mogadishu descended into some of its worst violence in years, as rival armed groups clashed across the city during Ramadan. For nearly five hours, mortars, RPGs, and heavy weapons echoed through the streets, forcing terrified families to flee. The fighting sparked by attacks on opposition leaders’ residences quickly escalated into a full-scale confrontation between forces loyal to President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo and opposition-aligned army, police, and clan militias. Villa Somalia itself was struck by mortar fire, and loyalist forces suffered major setbacks, retreating from key districts. While Prime Minister Mohammed Roble announced a late-night truce, the opposition disputes its existence, accusing government forces of unprovoked aggression. Observers fear the violence will intensify without decisive third-party intervention, amid speculation of possible Eritrean support for Farmaajo. Analysts argue that Farmaajo has taken a reckless gamble against a unified and deeply aggrieved clan coalition, one with the capacity for sustained resistance.
Somalia’s political landscape is facing a dramatic shift as around 400 clan leaders from the Hawiye clan issued a historic declaration rejecting President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year extension. The Pan Hawiye congress in Mogadishu marked a seminal moment, calling for annulment of the extension, depoliticisation of military and security forces, and a return to the 17 September accord. This unprecedented cohesion among Hawiye sub-clans signals growing challenges for Villa Somalia and renders Farmaajo’s extended term increasingly untenable. Traditionally divided between Habar Gedir and Mudulood factions, the Hawiye have been manipulated by Farmaajo through Senate seat allocations and key appointments to undercut opposition support. Now, the clans are uniting, mobilizing militias, and establishing defensive positions across Mogadishu, effectively reshaping the city into sub-clan enclaves reminiscent of past conflicts. Military tensions in the capital are rising, and even Farmaajo’s closest aides recognize the risk posed by his intransigence. With opposition consolidation and armed preparedness gaining momentum, Villa Somalia faces an unprecedented threat to its authority. Analysts suggest that Farmaajo’s continued defiance could provoke large-scale confrontations, making it clear that political survival without compromise is increasingly unlikely. The Hawiye’s decisive stance may well determine the next phase of Somalia’s political transition and the stability of its capital.
Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo faces increasing international isolation and domestic financial collapse, prompting a strategic “Look East” pivot. Relations with Somalia’s traditional Western partners, particularly the EU, have deteriorated over the electoral crisis, which Farmaajo bears primary responsibility for. In late 2020, the EU withheld budgetary assistance to pressure the regime, creating a major shortfall that hindered civil service and military payments. Despite this, Villa Somalia maintained the illusion of electoral progress through piecemeal negotiations, while planning for a unilateral term extension. As Western support waned, Farmaajo dispatched emissaries to the Gulf, Turkey, North Africa, and China, but key allies, including Egypt and Qatar, have been slow or reluctant to provide assistance. In a sign of growing desperation, the regime is now turning to Russia and other long-standing partners to secure financial backing. The Somali government faces mounting challenges: empty coffers, unpaid soldiers, civil servants going months without salaries, and the risk of mutinies. The coming weeks may prove decisive for Farmaajo’s ability to sustain his extended mandate, as the viability of his administration increasingly depends on foreign assistance and his capacity to maintain internal loyalty. Without a major external boost, the regime’s survival is in serious jeopardy.
Mogadishu is dangerously on edge following President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year mandate extension. The city faces a rising threat of armed confrontation as rival security formations mobilize, and the federal army and intelligence services begin to fragment. Reports indicate a potential major shakeup in military command as Farmaajo consolidates his grip on power. While internal divisions within the regime are accelerating under mounting international pressure, Farmaajo still maintains strong loyalist networks capable of sustaining him through initial turbulence. At the same time, Somalia’s opposition has demonstrated restraint but is preparing an alternative administration, the Provisional Sovereign Salvation Council, which could trigger further clashes. Opposition leaders command significant clan-based militias equipped with heavy weaponry and battlewagons, which could overwhelm government elite units in sustained conflict. The escalating crisis highlights the urgent need for decisive international action, including sanctions targeting Farmaajo and his key supporters, to prevent Mogadishu from descending into large-scale violence. With political instability, armed rivalries, and the risk of civil strife intensifying, Somalia stands at a critical juncture that demands immediate attention to protect democratic principles and national security.
Somalia faces a deepening political crisis as President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo signs a controversial two-year term extension, defying opposition voices and the Upper House’s rejection. The move underscores Farmaajo’s disregard for the rule of law and his strategic calculations to retain power despite widespread domestic and international opposition. Western governments, including the US, EU, and UK, have issued strong warnings, signaling potential sanctions, yet Farmaajo appears to calculate that the threat will not materialize. He also relies on support from foreign allies like Turkey and Qatar and anticipates a subdued public response during Ramadan. Villa Somalia’s confidence in its military and security apparatus, bolstered by external aid, raises the risk of armed conflict in Mogadishu and beyond. Analysts warn that the extension threatens Somalia’s fragile federal institutions, risks mass protests, and could further destabilize the Horn of Africa. The situation highlights the urgent need for coordinated international intervention to prevent escalation, protect democratic principles, and ensure a peaceful political transition. As Somalia navigates this critical juncture, the stakes for the nation’s future governance and stability have never been higher.
Somalia’s Lower House of Parliament remains at the center of the country’s deepening political crisis. Controversially extended in late 2020, it functions as a key driver of the stalemate that has paralyzed Somalia’s electoral and governance systems. Under the leadership of Speaker Mohammed Mursal, a close ally of President Farmaajo, the House has lost independence and credibility, becoming increasingly seen as an appendage of the Executive. The Parliament routinely violates the provisional constitution, flouts its own rules, and has facilitated Villa Somalia’s prolonged gerrymandering and electoral delays. The opposition fears that the House may be used to illegally extend Farmaajo’s stay in power, leveraging “business-as-usual” sessions to smuggle motions through. This concern is rooted in Mursal’s record of rapid and politically motivated decisions, including the 2020 ouster of former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire in under eight minutes. International partners have pressured Mursal to prevent any unconstitutional extension, yet Farmaajo continues to pursue his plan with Mursal’s support.
Villa Somalia’s recent move to extend its security control over Halane, Mogadishu’s Aden Adde International Airport, underscores growing political tensions in Somalia. The Somali Police Forces Commissioner placed the airport’s police station under the Banaadir Regional Police Command, a decision seen by critics as potentially unconstitutional. Halane serves as a secure hub for diplomatic missions and high-profile electoral negotiations, making it critical for opposition safety. The Farmaajo regime has long resisted the airport’s “extra-territoriality,” viewing it as a space beyond its coercive reach. By deploying the paramilitary Harama’ad unit and placing the airport under a Villa Somalia ally, Sadaq John, the government effectively extends its surveillance and control over opposition activities. This has raised alarms among foreign governments, diplomatic missions, AMISOM, and Somali opposition parties, who fear increased political repression. Observers argue that this strategic move allows Villa Somalia to monitor opponents, disrupt opposition gatherings, and influence political negotiations, undermining democratic processes and human rights. The extension of partisan control to Halane signals the growing reach of the regime’s coercive power and highlights the precarious balance of safety, neutrality, and political freedom in Somalia’s capital.
The Janan saga highlights the complex and often contradictory political maneuvers of Villa Somalia. Abdirashid Hassan Abdinoor, the former Jubaland Minister of Internal Security, was once a collaborator with the Somali Federal Government (FGS) despite being wanted for human rights violations. Pardoned and granted immunity, Janan initially appeared to support FGS interests, but later backed President Ahmed Madobe’s re-election, drawing the ire of Villa Somalia. Subsequent attempts by the FGS and NISA to detain him led to clashes, including a major confrontation in Beled Hawo in Gedo, with accusations of external support from Kenya. Fast forward, Janan is no longer considered a fugitive but is instead positioned as a political pawn, illustrating the selective application of justice and the double standards of the Somali government. This saga underscores the challenges of accountability, transparency, and political loyalty in Somalia. Observers see Janan’s story as emblematic of how Villa Somalia manipulates pardons, imprisonment, and alliances to maintain leverage over regional leaders and shape the broader political landscape, highlighting the fragility of Somalia’s federal system.
The meeting in Halane between President Farmaajo and regional leaders is unlikely to produce a lasting solution for Somalia’s stalled electoral process. Past agreements have consistently unraveled once international attention waned, exposing the fragility of pacts imposed under external pressure. Farmaajo’s actions over the last two years reveal that he does not seek a credible vote. His priority has been to buy time and consolidate power, aiming for a regime extension by any means necessary. Throughout his tenure, Farmaajo has emphasized the need for a “strong government” over democratic elections, signaling intentions to weaken Somalia’s federal system, sideline opposition, and establish autocratic control. International partners, in their short-term approach, risk legitimizing another unstable electoral pact that Villa Somalia will almost certainly ignore. Meanwhile, Qatar and Turkey’s growing influence undermines Western leverage, reducing the effectiveness of traditional diplomacy in Somalia. Opportunities to encourage a peaceful transition such as nudging Farmaajo to step down after 8 February or supporting the opposition led National Salvation Council were missed. Without a coordinated strategy that accounts for these realities, Somalia faces continued political instability. International actors must recalibrate their approach, focusing on long-term democratic reforms rather than temporary deals that entrench Farmaajo’s power.
High-stakes political negotiations in Somalia have hit a stalemate due to concerns over the safety and neutrality of meeting venues. Jubaland and Puntland’s insistence on secure arrangements reflects genuine fears for their leaders’ protection. On 19 February, government security forces attacked the residence of senior presidential candidates in Mogadishu, raising alarm over the risks of meeting in Villa Somalia. President Farmaajo invited opposition leaders to Mogadishu, fully aware that security concerns would become a negotiating obstacle, allowing him to delay meaningful progress. While Villa Somalia remains under his control, opposition leaders argue that Farmaajo should be recognized only as a candidate, not the sitting president, to prevent undue influence over outcomes. Halane Camp has emerged as a preferred venue because it offers a more neutral and secure environment, with the UN providing accommodation and food for participants. Ensuring the safety of all attendees is essential for fostering trust, advancing dialogue, and moving Somalia closer to resolving its protracted political crisis. Without a secure, impartial venue, negotiations risk further delays, undermining democratic processes and perpetuating instability in the country.