Mohamed Hussein Roble, once a quiet technocrat and environmental engineer, emerged as an unlikely but pivotal figure in Somalia’s recent political history. Appointed as a supposedly docile Prime Minister in 2020 by President Farmaajo’s Nabad iyo Nolol party, Roble surprised many by standing up for constitutional order during Somalia’s 2021 electoral crisis. When parliament controversially extended Farmaajo’s mandate by two years, Roble refused to go along, instead mediating between opposition groups and federal leaders to restore the electoral process. Despite increasing tensions, sabotage efforts, and even an attempted ouster by Farmaajo, Roble remained steadfast. He convened and led the National Consultative Council and pushed through the long-delayed parliamentary elections. His firm stance and willingness to risk personal safety helped avert civil war and set the stage for a peaceful transfer of power. Notably, Roble chose not to run for president himself, removing any doubts about his impartiality.
Ikraan Tahlil, a young and dedicated NISA officer, vanished on 26 June 2021, triggering a chain of political events that would plunge Somalia into crisis. Known for her work liaising between NISA and the Banadir Regional Authority, Ikraan’s disappearance was followed by conflicting reports, with the government initially claiming she was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab an allegation swiftly denied by both her family and the group itself. As public outrage mounted, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble demanded a transparent investigation, clashing with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and then NISA director Fahad Yasin. Roble’s dismissal of Fahad deepened the standoff, with Farmaajo countering by appointing his own loyalists to key security positions. Ikraan’s family pursued legal action against senior NISA officials, further inflaming tensions. The political rift has since evolved into a constitutional crisis, with the threat of a no-confidence motion against Roble and potential violence looming.
Somalia’s political tensions have escalated following outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial decision to appoint a commission of inquiry into the murder of NISA agent Ikraan Tahliil. The killing, believed to be politically motivated, has become a flashpoint in the ongoing power struggle with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. Critics argue the move undermines transparency by placing the investigation under executive control, potentially shielding key figures such as former NISA chief Fahad Yasin. Farmaajo’s attempts to retain loyalists and his resistance to Fahad’s dismissal have backfired, enabling Roble to consolidate power and public support. The loss of Fahad long regarded as Farmaajo’s key political strategist and foreign funding link has weakened the president’s re-election prospects. Meanwhile, speculation grows over potential parliamentary maneuvers, including a no-confidence motion against Roble, that could trigger a constitutional crisis.
Mogadishu is gripped by escalating political turmoil as the power struggle between Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo intensifies. The Federal Government is effectively split, with both leaders pulling in opposite directions. This division threatens the upcoming elections, risks triggering violence, and has drawn concern from regional capitals. The latest flashpoint came when PM Roble dismissed Hassan Hundubey Jimale, a key Farmaajo ally, as Minister of Internal Security, replacing him with Abdullahi Mohammed Nur. Farmaajo rejected the appointment as illegal, while the Speaker of the Lower House, another Farmaajo supporter, questioned its legitimacy. Behind the scenes, speculation grows about a possible no-confidence motion against Roble. The roots of this crisis trace back to February 2021, when Farmaajo’s term expired but he retained significant powers, setting up an unworkable division of authority over security and elections. The Ikraan Tahlil case allowed Roble to weaken Farmaajo’s grip, rallying public support and gaining key security backers.
Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has emerged stronger in Somalia’s ongoing power struggle with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. This week’s dramatic events in Mogadishu, centered on the leadership of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), revealed a decisive shift in the balance of power. Farmaajo deployed Eritrean-trained Duufaan forces to secure NISA headquarters for his appointee, Yasin Farey, but two NISA-affiliated units defected, siding with Roble’s choice, General Bashir Goobe. This move is expected to result in Gen Goobe’s installation as temporary NISA Director General. Farmaajo’s influence has sharply declined, limited to a small coalition of MPs and regional allies. His position has been further undermined by the Ikraan Tahlil murder case, in which the victim’s family has filed charges against senior security figures, including Farmaajo’s close ally, Fahad Yasin. With public and opposition support rallying behind Roble, Fahad’s political future is in doubt.
Caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has brought a refreshing change to Somalia’s political landscape, contrasting sharply with the tense environment under former President Farmaajo. Since assuming office, Roble has worked to resolve political uncertainty, secure consensus among stakeholders, and advance the federal election process. He has garnered public support by opposing Farmaajo’s controversial term extension, facilitating dialogue through the National Consultative Council, and upholding justice in the Ikraan Tahlil case, standing firm against influential figures. Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Roble must maintain the fragile consensus among federal member states and national institutions, focusing on completing the elections without delays. Limiting non-essential foreign trips and diplomatic engagements is crucial to avoid perceptions of campaigning. Above all, he must remain neutral, steering clear of favoritism or political endorsements, and address speculation about his own presidential ambitions.