Somalia’s security transition under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) echoes NATO’s experience in Afghanistan, raising concerns about long-term stability. The ATMIS mandate focuses on developing Somali forces and supporting “clear, hold, build” strategies, but history warns of the risks of oversimplifying security reform. In Afghanistan, attempts to create integrated national forces failed in a society where security is inherently local. Somalia faces similar challenges, with clan affiliations dominating politics and security structures. Special forces like Danab and Gorgor have achieved successes, but regular forces lack sustainability without foreign support. As ATMIS prepares to withdraw, experts suggest embracing local realities by formally integrating effective clan militias into Somalia’s security framework. These groups, such as the Ma’awiisley in Hiiraan and Galmudug, have shown strong motivation in fighting Al-Shabaab, driven by existential threats to their communities. A formal mechanism could link these militias to the federal and state governments, enabling rapid mobilization against extremists while reducing reliance on unsustainable national forces. Proper oversight would be essential to prevent inter-clan violence and misuse of arms. Learning from Afghanistan’s failures, Somalia’s security future may depend on blending formal structures with traditional, community-based defense systems.
Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Somalia has long been recognised as a critical component of peacebuilding and state development, yet tangible progress remains limited. Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s new administration, SSR has once again taken centre stage, with early promises to reform outdated legal frameworks and federalise the security apparatus. Major priorities include depoliticising the Somali Security Forces (SSF), reinstating civilian oversight, and holding accountable those who misused security power for political gain under the previous regime. Collaboration with Federal Member States (FMSs) will be essential to reform key institutions like the National Security Council and implement the 2017 National Security Architecture. Additionally, a coherent legal framework, improved coordination with donors, and stronger ICT, logistics, and asset management systems are critical to ensure both efficiency and accountability. One of the most urgent reforms is the removal of inadequately vetted Al-Shabaab defectors from within the SSF, a legacy of the previous administration’s missteps.