Somalia’s security transition under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) echoes NATO’s experience in Afghanistan, raising concerns about long-term stability. The ATMIS mandate focuses on developing Somali forces and supporting “clear, hold, build” strategies, but history warns of the risks of oversimplifying security reform. In Afghanistan, attempts to create integrated national forces failed in a society where security is inherently local. Somalia faces similar challenges, with clan affiliations dominating politics and security structures. Special forces like Danab and Gorgor have achieved successes, but regular forces lack sustainability without foreign support. As ATMIS prepares to withdraw, experts suggest embracing local realities by formally integrating effective clan militias into Somalia’s security framework. These groups, such as the Ma’awiisley in Hiiraan and Galmudug, have shown strong motivation in fighting Al-Shabaab, driven by existential threats to their communities. A formal mechanism could link these militias to the federal and state governments, enabling rapid mobilization against extremists while reducing reliance on unsustainable national forces. Proper oversight would be essential to prevent inter-clan violence and misuse of arms. Learning from Afghanistan’s failures, Somalia’s security future may depend on blending formal structures with traditional, community-based defense systems.
Since 2014, Somalia’s amnesty program for Al-Shabaab defectors has aimed to encourage fighters to surrender in exchange for rehabilitation and reintegration. Backed by international partners, the initiative established centers in Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Baidoa, offering deradicalization, vocational training, and community reintegration. While some high-profile defectors such as Hassan Dahir Aweys, Mohamed Said Atom, Zakria Ismail, and Mukhtar Roobow accepted the offer, the program has been undermined by political manipulation, lack of transparency, and inconsistent outcomes. Certain defectors have been rewarded with government or intelligence positions, raising fears of infiltration, while others have been jailed, sent into exile, or quietly abandoned. Many low-profile defectors face intimidation, abduction, or assassination by former comrades, leading some to rejoin Al-Shabaab. Others struggle to reintegrate due to broken government promises of safety and employment. Critics argue the program fails to fully leverage defectors as credible voices against extremism, missing valuable intelligence opportunities. Instead of consistent debriefing and support, defectors are often sidelined, leaving the initiative unpredictable and ineffective. Without clear standards, transparency, and genuine follow through, Somalia’s amnesty program risks deterring future defections and losing a critical tool in the fight against violent extremism.